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Comparison of the Price of oil
with the Price of Diesel
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| February 29, 2008: I've begun to track the price of oil and compare to the price of diesel. My thinking is that oil prices will change, then the diesel prices follow later. But I want to know the usual pattern. How many days after an oil price change does the diesel price change? Why do I want to know? |
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| A few weeks ago, I purchased the Transfer Flow toolbox/fuel tank which increased my fuel capacity to 75 gallons. That gives me a longer range while towing but it also gives me a chance to choose WHEN I buy diesel. For example, the last time we purchased fuel was on February 19 after returning from a California trip. We paid $3.38/gallon. Diesel is currently selling for $3.70/gallon, but I should be able to hold off for quit a while hoping the price will fall. In theory, if I learn the number of days it takes for diesel to change price after oil changes price, it will help me to decide when I should refuel. Let's make up a scenario: Today's oil price is nearly $102/barrel. Let's say tomorrow the price drops to $95/barrel. How long should I wait to get the best price on diesel? I hope following the oil and diesel prices will make a pattern apparent. The real time oil price is above while I use an average between Ehrenberg, Arizona and Eloy, Arizona at Flying J for the diesel prices. If you happen to notice a pattern, how about
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AZ Price |
Local Observation |
| Date |
Crude Oil |
Diesel |
Notes |
| 2/18/08 |
95.60 |
3.32 |
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| 2/19/08 |
99.60 |
3.32 |
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| 2/20/08 |
100.70 |
3.43 |
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| 2/21/08 |
98.23 |
3.43 |
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| 2/22/08 |
98.81 |
3.46 |
$3.44 at Safeway in Medford |
| 2/25/08 |
100.88 |
3.52 |
$3.68 at 76 in Medford |
| 2/26/08 |
101.15 |
3.54 |
$3.70 in Medford at 76 |
| 2/27/08 |
99.64 |
3.54 |
$3.70 at 76 in Medford at 76 |
| 2/28/08 |
101.59 |
3.56 |
$3.70 in Medford at 76 |
| 2/29/08 |
102.59 |
3.50 |
$3.70 in Medford at 76 |
| 3/1/08 |
101.84 |
3.58 |
$3.50 price yesterday reflects a strangely low price of $3.44 in Ehrenberg, AZ |
| 3/2/08 |
101.80 |
3.54 |
$3.62 in Eloy but $3.45 in Ehrenberg |
| 3/3/08 |
102.40 |
3.58 |
$3.65 @ Safeway/$3.80 @ 76 |
| 3/4/08 |
99.95 |
3.60 |
Still $3.80 at 76 |
| 3/5/08 |
104.52 |
3.61 |
Still $3.65 at Safeway |
| 3/6/08 |
104.70 |
3.61 |
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| 3/7/08 |
105.15 |
3.70 |
$3.69 @ Safeway/$3.85 @ 76 |
| 3/8/08 |
105.15 |
3.725 |
Still $3.85 at 76 |
| 3/9/08 |
105.15 |
3.775 |
$3.70 @ Fred Meyer |
| 3/10/08 |
107.90 |
3.785 |
$3.80 @ Safeway, $3.90 @ 76 |
| 3/11/08 |
108.75 |
3.82 |
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| 3/12/08 |
109.90 |
3.85 |
$3.81 at Safeway, $3.95 @ 76 |
| 3/13/08 |
110.24 |
3.86 |
Anne (a reader) reports diesel at $4.04 in Massachusetts |
| 3/14/08 |
110.15 |
3.87 |
$3.97 at 76 |
| 3/17/08* |
106.11 |
3.91 |
$3.88 at Safeway/$3.94 at 76
Rod, a reader, reports diesel at $4.29 in Palm Springs, California |
| 3/18/08 |
109.42 |
3.94 |
$3.91 sneaking up at Safeway, still $3.94 at 76 |
| 3/19/08 |
102.13 |
3.93 |
Still $3.91 at Safeway, $4.10 at 76 |
| 3/20/08 |
101.84 |
3.94 |
Still $3.91 at Safeway, $4.10 at 76 |
| 3/21/08 |
101.84 |
3.94 |
$4.10 at 76, $3.83 at Fred Meyer in Grants Pass |
| 3/24/08 |
100.30 |
3.94 |
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| 3/25/08 |
101.22 |
3.94 |
Medford 76 is back to $4 |
| 3/26/08 |
105.90 |
3.93 |
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| 3/27/08 |
107.58 |
3.93 |
Medford 76: $4; Safeway: $3.95 |
| 3/28/08 |
105.64 |
3.93 |
76: $4; Safeway: $3.93 |
| 3/31/08 |
101.58 |
3.93 |
76: $3.96; Safeway: $3.93 |
| 4/1/08 |
100.98 |
3.915 |
$3.83 at Fred Meyer, Grants Pass |
| 4/2/08 |
104.83 |
3.915 |
$3.98 at 76 |
| 4/3/08 |
103.83 |
3.915 |
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| 4/4/08 |
106.11 |
3.915 |
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| 4/7/08 |
109.09 |
3.925 |
$4.09 @ 76; $3.93 @ Safeway |
| 4/8/08 |
108.50 |
3.95 |
unchanged in Medford |
| 4/9/08 |
110.87 |
3.955 |
$4.15 at $76 |
| 4/10/08 |
110.11 |
3.97 |
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| 4/11/08 |
110.14 |
3.97 |
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| 4/14/08 |
111.76 |
3.99 |
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| 4/15/08 |
113.24 |
4.01 |
$4.13 at Safeway |
| 4/16/08 |
114.93 |
4.01 |
$4.39 at the Ashland Shell |
| 4/17/08 |
114.86 |
4.02 |
$4.17 at Safeway |
| 4/18/08 |
116.76 |
4.02 |
$4.17 at Fred Meyer/Grants Pass |
| 4/21/08 |
116.63 |
4.02 |
$4.23 at Safeway |
| 4/22/08 |
118.07 |
4.02 |
$4.26 at Safeway |
| 4/24/08 |
116.06 |
4.04 |
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| 4/28/08 |
118.75 |
4.06 |
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| 4/29/08 |
115.63 |
4.06 |
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| 4/30/08 |
113.46 |
4.06 |
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| 5/1/08 |
112.52 |
4.07 |
$4.37 @ Safeway |
| 5/2/08 |
116.25 |
4.03 |
$4.23 @ Fred Meyer in Grants Pass |
| 5/5/08 |
119.97 |
4.02 |
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| 5/6/08 |
121.84 |
4.04 |
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| 5/7/08 |
123.57 |
4.05 |
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| 5/8/08 |
123.69 |
4.07 |
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| 5/9/08 |
125.96 |
4.10 |
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| 5/13/08 |
125.66 |
4.27 |
$4.35 @ Fred Meyer in Grants Pass |
| 5/14/08 |
124.22 |
4.30 |
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| 5/15/08 |
124.12 |
4.34 |
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| 5/16/08 |
126.29 |
4.36 |
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March 9, 2008: Note: Bought 28 gallons of diesel at Fred Meyer for ten cent discount, paid $3.60 per gallon. I figured it was the best I  could do for a while with the price of oil increasing. All tanks are full.
*March 17, 2008: With the price of Safeway diesel in Medford getting very close the price of 76 fuel, I'm going to guess that the reason diesel is always cheaper than other stations is because their volumn of sales is much lower. Flying J seems to react almost im-mediately to an oil price change while Safeway lingers behind at old prices for quite a while. Perhaps Safeway is selling fuel cheaper because it is older priced fuel so they are still at the old prices until they refill their tanks. If that's the case, when/if oil begins to drop in price, Safeway should be above the competitor prices for a while until they refill with cheaper fuel. We'll watch to learn if that's the case. |
| April 7, 2008: With the price of oil increasing and having driven nearly 800 miles since March 17, we decided to fill both tanks. It took 43.5 gallons to fill at Fred Meyer. Their advertised price was $3.85 but we got ten cents off because we are good shoppers at "Freddies". So we paid $3.75/gallon. Note that Medford's best price is $3.93/gallon. |
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